Methodology-Centered Review of Molecular Modeling, Simulation, and Prediction of SARS-CoV-2.

Despite tremendous efforts in the past two years, our understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), virus-host interactions, immune response, virulence, transmission, and evolution is still very limited. This limitation calls for further in-depth investigation. Computational studies have become an indispensable component in combating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to their low cost, their efficiency, and the fact that they are free from safety and ethical constraints. Additionally, the mechanism that governs the global evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 cannot be revealed from individual experiments and was discovered by integrating genotyping of massive viral sequences, biophysical modeling of protein-protein interactions, deep mutational data, deep learning, and advanced mathematics. There exists a tsunami of literature on the molecular modeling, simulations, and predictions of SARS-CoV-2 and related developments of drugs, vaccines, antibodies, and diagnostics. To provide readers with a quick update about this literature, we present a comprehensive and systematic methodology-centered review. Aspects such as molecular biophysics, bioinformatics, cheminformatics, machine learning, and mathematics are discussed. This review will be beneficial to researchers who are looking for ways to contribute to SARS-CoV-2 studies and those who are interested in the status of the field.

Perspectives on SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease Inhibitors.

The main protease (Mpro) plays a crucial role in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) replication and is highly conserved, rendering it one of the most attractive therapeutic targets for SARS-CoV-2 inhibition. Currently, although two drug candidates targeting SARS-CoV-2 Mpro designed by Pfizer are under clinical trials, no SARS-CoV-2 medication is approved due to the long period of drug development. Here, we collect a comprehensive list of 817 available SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV Mpro inhibitors from the literature or databases and analyze their molecular mechanisms of action. The structure-activity relationships (SARs) among each series of inhibitors are discussed. Additionally, we broadly examine available antiviral activity, ADMET (absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity), and animal tests of these inhibitors. We comment on their druggability or drawbacks that prevent them from becoming drugs. This Perspective sheds light on the future development of Mpro inhibitors for SARS-CoV-2 and future coronavirus diseases.

Revealing the Threat of Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Mutations to Antibody Therapies.

The ongoing massive vaccination and the development of effective intervention offer the long-awaited hope to end the global rage of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the rapidly growing SARS-CoV-2 variants might compromise existing vaccines and monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies. Although there are valuable experimental studies about the potential threats from emerging variants, the results are limited to a handful of mutations and Eli Lilly and Regeneron mAbs. The potential threats from frequently occurring mutations on the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) to many mAbs in clinical trials are largely unknown. We fill the gap by developing a topology-based deep learning strategy that is validated with tens of thousands of experimental data points. We analyze 796,759 genome isolates from patients to identify 606 non-degenerate RBD mutations and investigate their impacts on 16 mAbs in clinical trials. Our findings, which are highly consistent with existing experimental results about Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Kappa variants shed light on potential threats of 100 most observed mutations to mAbs not only from Eli Lilly and Regeneron but also from Celltrion and Rockefeller University that are in clinical trials. We unveil, for the first time, that high-frequency mutations R346K/S, N439K, G446V, L455F, V483F/A, F486L, F490L/S, Q493L, and S494P might compromise some of mAbs in clinical trials. Our study gives rise to a general perspective about how mutations will affect current vaccines.

Vaccine-escape and fast-growing mutations in the United Kingdom, the United States, Singapore, Spain, India, and other COVID-19-devastated countries.

Recently, the SARS-CoV-2 variants from the United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, and Brazil have received much attention for their increased infectivity, potentially high virulence, and possible threats to existing vaccines and antibody therapies. The question remains if there are other more infectious variants transmitted around the world. We carry out a large-scale study of 506,768 SARS-CoV-2 genome isolates from patients to identify many other rapidly growing mutations on the spike (S) protein receptor-binding domain (RBD). We reveal that essentially all 100 most observed mutations strengthen the binding between the RBD and the host angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), indicating the virus evolves toward more infectious variants. In particular, we discover new fast-growing RBD mutations N439K, S477N, S477R, and N501T that also enhance the RBD and ACE2 binding. We further unveil that mutation N501Y involved in United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, and Brazil variants may moderately weaken the binding between the RBD and many known antibodies, while mutations E484K and K417N found in South Africa and Brazilian variants, L452R and E484Q found in India variants, can potentially disrupt the binding between the RBD and many known antibodies. Among these RBD mutations, L452R is also now known as part of the California variant B.1.427. Finally, we hypothesize that RBD mutations that can simultaneously make SARS-CoV-2 more infectious and disrupt the existing antibodies, called vaccine escape mutations, will pose an imminent threat to the current crop of vaccines. A list of most likely vaccine escape mutations is given, including S494P, Q493L, K417N, F490S, F486L, R403K, E484K, L452R, K417T, F490L, E484Q, and A475S. Mutation T478K appears to make the Mexico variant B.1.1.222 the most infectious one. Our comprehensive genetic analysis and protein-protein binding study show that the genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 on the RBD, which may be regulated by host gene editing, viral proofreading, random genetic drift, and natural selection, gives rise to more infectious variants that will potentially compromise existing vaccines and antibody therapies.

Prediction and mitigation of mutation threats to COVID-19 vaccines and antibody therapies.

Antibody therapeutics and vaccines are among our last resort to end the raging COVID-19 pandemic. They, however, are prone to over 5000 mutations on the spike (S) protein uncovered by a Mutation Tracker based on over 200 000 genome isolates. It is imperative to understand how mutations will impact vaccines and antibodies in development. In this work, we first study the mechanism, frequency, and ratio of mutations on the S protein which is the common target of most COVID-19 vaccines and antibody therapies. Additionally, we build a library of 56 antibody structures and analyze their 2D and 3D characteristics. Moreover, we predict the mutation-induced binding free energy (BFE) changes for the complexes of S protein and antibodies or ACE2. By integrating genetics, biophysics, deep learning, and algebraic topology, we reveal that most of the 462 mutations on the receptor-binding domain (RBD) will weaken the binding of S protein and antibodies and disrupt the efficacy and reliability of antibody therapies and vaccines. A list of 31 antibody disrupting mutants is identified, while many other disruptive mutations are detailed as well. We also unveil that about 65% of the existing RBD mutations, including those variants recently found in the United Kingdom (UK) and South Africa, will strengthen the binding between the S protein and human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), resulting in more infectious COVID-19 variants. We discover the disparity between the extreme values of RBD mutation-induced BFE strengthening and weakening of the bindings with antibodies and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 is at an advanced stage of evolution for human infection, while the human immune system is able to produce optimized antibodies. This discovery, unfortunately, implies the vulnerability of current vaccines and antibody drugs to new mutations. Our predictions were validated by comparison with more than 1400 deep mutations on the S protein RBD. Our results show the urgent need to develop new mutation-resistant vaccines and antibodies and to prepare for seasonal vaccinations.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 mutations in the United States suggests presence of four substrains and novel variants.

SARS-CoV-2 has been mutating since it was first sequenced in early January 2020. Here, we analyze 45,494 complete SARS-CoV-2 geneome sequences in the world to understand their mutations. Among them, 12,754 sequences are from the United States. Our analysis suggests the presence of four substrains and eleven top mutations in the United States. These eleven top mutations belong to 3 disconnected groups. The first and second groups consisting of 5 and 8 concurrent mutations are prevailing, while the other group with three concurrent mutations gradually fades out. Moreover, we reveal that female immune systems are more active than those of males in responding to SARS-CoV-2 infections. One of the top mutations, 27964C > T-(S24L) on ORF8, has an unusually strong gender dependence. Based on the analysis of all mutations on the spike protein, we uncover that two of four SASR-CoV-2 substrains in the United States become potentially more infectious.

Unveiling the molecular mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 main protease inhibition from 137 crystal structures using algebraic topology and deep learning.

Currently, there is neither effective antiviral drugs nor vaccine for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Due to its high conservativeness and low similarity with human genes, SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) is one of the most favorable drug targets. However, the current understanding of the molecular mechanism of Mpro inhibition is limited by the lack of reliable binding affinity ranking and prediction of existing structures of Mpro-inhibitor complexes. This work integrates mathematics (i.e., algebraic topology) and deep learning (MathDL) to provide a reliable ranking of the binding affinities of 137 SARS-CoV-2 Mpro inhibitor structures. We reveal that Gly143 residue in Mpro is the most attractive site to form hydrogen bonds, followed by Glu166, Cys145, and His163. We also identify 71 targeted covalent bonding inhibitors. MathDL was validated on the PDBbind v2016 core set benchmark and a carefully curated SARS-CoV-2 inhibitor dataset to ensure the reliability of the present binding affinity prediction. The present binding affinity ranking, interaction analysis, and fragment decomposition offer a foundation for future drug discovery efforts.

Prediction and mitigation of mutation threats to COVID-19 vaccines and antibody therapies.

Antibody therapeutics and vaccines are among our last resort to end the raging COVID-19 pandemic.They, however, are prone to over 1,800 mutations uncovered by a Mutation Tracker. It is urgent to understand how vaccines and antibodies in the development would be impacted by mutations. In this work, we first study the mechanism, frequency, and ratio of mutations on the spike (S) protein, which is the common target of most COVID-19 vaccines and antibody therapies. Additionally, we build a library of antibody structures and analyze their 2D and 3D characteristics. Moreover, we predict the mutation-induced binding free energy (BFE) changes for the complexes of S protein and antibodies or ACE2. By integrating genetics, biophysics, deep learning, and algebraic topology, we deduce that some of the mutations such as M153I, S254F, and S255F may weaken the binding of S protein and antibodies, and potentially disrupt the efficacy and reliability of antibody therapies and vaccines in the development. We provide a strategy to prioritize the selection of mutations for designing vaccines or antibody cocktails.

Review of COVID-19 Antibody Therapies.

In the global health emergency caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), efficient and specific therapies are urgently needed. Compared with traditional small-molecular drugs, antibody therapies are relatively easy to develop; they are as specific as vaccines in targeting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); and they have thus attracted much attention in the past few months. This article reviews seven existing antibodies for neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 with 3D structures deposited in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). Five 3D antibody structures associated with the SARS-CoV spike (S) protein are also evaluated for their potential in neutralizing SARS-CoV-2. The interactions of these antibodies with the S protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) are compared with those between angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and RBD complexes. Due to the orders of magnitude in the discrepancies of experimental binding affinities, we introduce topological data analysis, a variety of network models, and deep learning to analyze the binding strength and therapeutic potential of the 14 antibody-antigen complexes. The current COVID-19 antibody clinical trials, which are not limited to the S protein target, are also reviewed.

Characterizing SARS-CoV-2 mutations in the United States.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been mutating since it was first sequenced in early January 2020. The genetic variants have developed into a few distinct clusters with different properties. Since the United States (US) has the highest number of viral infected patients globally, it is essential to understand the US SARS-CoV-2. Using genotyping, sequence-alignment, time-evolution, k-means clustering, protein-folding stability, algebraic topology, and network theory, we reveal that the US SARS-CoV-2 has four substrains and five top US SARS-CoV-2 mutations were first detected in China (2 cases), Singapore (2 cases), and the United Kingdom (1 case). The next three top US SARS-CoV-2 mutations were first detected in the US. These eight top mutations belong to two disconnected groups. The first group consisting of 5 concurrent mutations is prevailing, while the other group with three concurrent mutations gradually fades out. We identify that one of the top mutations, 27964C>T-(S24L) on ORF8, has an unusually strong gender dependence. Based on the analysis of all mutations on the spike protein, we further uncover that three of four US SASR-CoV-2 substrains become more infectious. Our study calls for effective viral control and containing strategies in the US.

Repositioning of 8565 Existing Drugs for COVID-19.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has infected over 7.1 million people and led to over 0.4 million deaths. Currently, there is no specific anti-SARS-CoV-2 medication. New drug discovery typically takes more than 10 years. Drug repositioning becomes one of the most feasible approaches for combating COVID-19. This work curates the largest available experimental data set for SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV 3CL (main) protease inhibitors. On the basis of this data set, we develop validated machine learning models with relatively low root-mean-square error to screen 1553 FDA-approved drugs as well as another 7012 investigational or off-market drugs in DrugBank. We found that many existing drugs might be potentially potent to SARS-CoV-2. The druggability of many potent SARS-CoV-2 3CL protease inhibitors is analyzed. This work offers a foundation for further experimental studies of COVID-19 drug repositioning.